Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has has something to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
